Trump’s U-turn on Iran is clearly a reality check. But certainly the capabilities of Iran has been crippled, even seriously crippled. Iran has to change and this change will be good for the people of Iran, for the Middle East, where the pressure for the change is going to increase. The change is needed for the good of the World as well. America could have been an instrument for the change, but the present President is too erratic and self-centered to be such an instrument. He started well but has ended rather badly. It is difficult to say how much of the bungling is his own and how much that of his advisors, if there are any.
How far can he go? He looks more like a spent force now, with little left for further misadventures. Besides, democracies have this inherent advantage of change in policies as the Head of State changes. Besides having burnt his fingers in Iran and the chances of a return to power being scant, further misadventures are unlikely except if he locks horns with China over Taiwan which of course will be good for the world. India is right now in a position where he can neither dictate his terms nor throw his weight nor accept as an unconditional ally. Whatever damage could be done by regime changes in Bangladesh and Nepal and unconditional support to Pakistan, has not yielded much result. There is little else that can be done now.
As to global disharmony, it is bound to increase for some time regardless of the US. There are massive shifts underway so that a new world order can take full shape. In that New World Order US, Russia and India will come together; rather, India will bring them together. The Middle East and Europe will change considerably. China will start imploding and Pakistan will break up for sure. The when and how remains to be seen.
Affectionately
Alok Da
